y-axis

US jobs (BLS)

US payroll employment per month from the BLS Current Employment Statistics since 2015: the AI-exposed industries (call centres, clerical work, graphic design, news publishing), the software and IT-services industries, sector baselines and controls, and a derived share.

The BLS counts each job by the industry of the employer, not by the work the person does. A designer at a bank counts as a bank job. Each line is an industry, and it only stands in for an occupation.

cadence · monthly 21 series updated 22 Jul 2026 www.bls.gov/ces/ ↗
release markers

Total nonfarm (all jobs)

159M +0.3% yr as of Jun 2026
020.0M40.0M60.0M80.0M100M120M140M160M201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

AI-exposed industries

We group these industries because people expect AI to cut jobs in them. That expectation is a guess, not a result. Two of these industries are flat or still grow.

Call centres & telemarketing

276k −7.3% yr as of May 2026
0100k200k300k400k500k201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Telephone call centres (all)

308k −7.1% yr as of May 2026
0100k200k300k400k500k201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro
This industry includes the telemarketing line above. Do not add the two lines together.

Document preparation (data entry)

29.8k −16.1% yr as of May 2026
010.0k20.0k30.0k40.0k50.0k201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Graphic design services

51.4k +0.2% yr as of May 2026
010.0k20.0k30.0k40.0k50.0k60.0k201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Newspaper, book & periodical publishers

238k −6.3% yr as of May 2026
0100k200k300k400k201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Web portals & other information services

180k −0.6% yr as of Jun 2026
050.0k100k150k200k201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro
This industry holds search portals, libraries and archives together. The BLS does not count them apart.

Advertising & public relations

480k −0.4% yr as of Jun 2026
0100k200k300k400k500k201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro
Most of these jobs are in media buying and account management. Few of these people write copy, which is the part AI can do.

Software & IT services

Computer systems design & services

2.4M −1.1% yr as of Jun 2026
0500k1.0M1.5M2.0M2.5M201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro
This industry includes the two smaller lines below. Do not add them to this line.

Custom computer programming

1.1M −0.9% yr as of May 2026
0200k400k600k800k1.0M201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Computer systems design

1.1M −2.5% yr as of May 2026
0200k400k600k800k1.0M1.2M201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Software publishers

662k +1.3% yr as of May 2026
0100k200k300k400k500k600k700k201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Data centres, hosting & data processing

462k −4.1% yr as of Jun 2026
0100k200k300k400k500k201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro
A new data centre costs a lot of money but adds few jobs. These jobs therefore follow the money spent on data centres only loosely.

Baselines & controls

These lines are controls, not AI signals. They show the wider sectors and the business cycle. Compare every line above with them before you blame AI.

Total private

136M +0.5% yr as of Jun 2026
020.0M40.0M60.0M80.0M100M120M140M201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Professional & business services

22.5M +0.4% yr as of Jun 2026
05.0M10.0M15.0M20.0M201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Professional, scientific & technical

10.8M +0.6% yr as of Jun 2026
02.0M4.0M6.0M8.0M10.0M201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Administrative & support services

8.5M +0.4% yr as of Jun 2026
02.0M4.0M6.0M8.0M201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Information sector

2.8M −3.1% yr as of Jun 2026
0500k1.0M1.5M2.0M2.5M3.0M201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Employment services (staffing)

3.2M +0.3% yr as of Jun 2026
01.0M2.0M3.0M4.0M201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro
⚠ This line is a control. In every recession, staffing companies lose jobs before other companies do. Check the business cycle first.

Temporary help services

2.5M −0.2% yr as of Jun 2026
0500k1.0M1.5M2.0M2.5M3.0M201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro

Derived

AI-exposed industries, share of all jobs derived

0.8% of all jobs −3.7% yr as of May 2026
00.20.40.60.811.2201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Copilot GAClaude 3Gemini 2.5 Pro
The jobs in the six AI-exposed industries above, divided by all US jobs. No job counts twice. ⚠ This share fell steadily from 2015, long before generative AI.

Figures

SeriesLatestChangeMinMaxCoverage
Call centres & telemarketing276k−7.3% yr276k505kJan 2015 — May 2026
Telephone call centres (all)308k−7.1% yr308k542kJan 2015 — May 2026
Document preparation (data entry)29.8k−16.1% yr29.8k49.3kJan 2015 — May 2026
Graphic design services51.4k+0.2% yr50.1k65.0kJan 2015 — May 2026
Newspaper, book & periodical publishers238k−6.3% yr238k438kJan 2015 — May 2026
Web portals & other information services180k−0.6% yr121k192kJan 2015 — Jun 2026
Advertising & public relations480k−0.4% yr433k503kJan 2015 — Jun 2026
Computer systems design & services2.4M−1.1% yr1.9M2.5MJan 2015 — Jun 2026
Custom computer programming1.1M−0.9% yr806k1.1MJan 2015 — May 2026
Computer systems design1.1M−2.5% yr890k1.2MJan 2015 — May 2026
Software publishers662k+1.3% yr326k664kJan 2015 — May 2026
Data centres, hosting & data processing462k−4.1% yr291k489kJan 2015 — Jun 2026
Total nonfarm (all jobs)159M+0.3% yr130M159MJan 2015 — Jun 2026
Total private136M+0.5% yr109M136MJan 2015 — Jun 2026
Professional & business services22.5M+0.4% yr19.2M22.9MJan 2015 — Jun 2026
Professional, scientific & technical10.8M+0.6% yr8.5M10.8MJan 2015 — Jun 2026
Administrative & support services8.5M+0.4% yr7.2M9.1MJan 2015 — Jun 2026
Information sector2.8M−3.1% yr2.6M3.1MJan 2015 — Jun 2026
Employment services (staffing)3.2M+0.3% yr2.5M3.9MJan 2015 — Jun 2026
Temporary help services2.5M−0.2% yr2.0M3.2MJan 2015 — Jun 2026
AI-exposed industries, share of all jobs0.8%−3.7% yr0.8%1.2%Jan 2015 — May 2026
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