The Periodic Table of Scarcity and Abundance H Hydrogen
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Hydrogen: Who controls it

Who controls the supply, and who depends on it?

Hydrogen is made in almost every industrial country, so control of hydrogen itself is spread out. Control is more concentrated in the natural gas used to make it, and in the trade in ammonia, urea and methanol. The Middle East is a large supplier of all of these.

Last updated 3 October 2026.

How concentrated supply is

China is the largest producer, with almost 30% of world demand in 2025. The IEA does not name a country in second place. It reports North America (16%) and the Middle East (14%) as regions, and India has 10%1. In the text of the review, the IEA gives 15% for the Middle East. In a chart in the same review, it gives 14%. We cannot compute a Herfindahl-Hirschman index (a standard measure of market concentration) from regional shares.

Most refineries and fertilizer plants make their own hydrogen1. We found no company shares in the sources we read for this page.

Supply is more concentrated one step back, in natural gas. Almost 65% of the world’s hydrogen came from gas in 2025. Of that gas-based hydrogen, 21% was made in the Middle East. Another 6% was made elsewhere with gas from the Middle East, so 27% depended on gas from the region1.

Low-emission hydrogen is more concentrated. China built nearly three quarters of the new electrolysis capacity in 20251.

Who depends on it

Food production depends on hydrogen through ammonia, the feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers1. Countries that import fertilizer depend on the exporters. Morocco imports all its ammonia, 40% of it from the Middle East. Brazil, Australia, South Africa and Thailand import all their urea, 40% to 85% of it from the Middle East1.

Some producers depend on imported gas. India relies on gas from the Middle East for 34% of its hydrogen made from gas1. In Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, one quarter of ammonia production uses gas from the region1.

Africa used about 3.1 million tonnes of hydrogen in 2024, about 3% of the world total, led by Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria1.

How governments treat it

List On the list
EU critical raw materials (2023) No 2
EU strategic raw materials (2023) No The 17 strategic raw materials are a subset of the 34 critical raw materials. Hydrogen is on neither list. 3
US critical minerals (USGS, 2025) No 4
US critical materials for energy (DOE, 2023) No 5
UK critical minerals (2024) No Natural hydrogen was one of 82 candidates assessed. The UK authors give no data on its deposit types, and it is not on the list of 34. 6

Hydrogen is on none of the five critical material lists that we checked.

  • The EU critical and strategic raw materials lists of 2023.
  • The US Geological Survey list of 2025.
  • The US Department of Energy list of 2023.
  • The UK list of 20242456. The UK assessors included natural hydrogen among their 82 candidates, but did not put it on the list6.

Governments treat hydrogen as an energy and climate matter. By mid-2026, 66 countries had hydrogen strategies. Only China and the Netherlands were on track for their 2030 targets for low-emission production1. By early June 2026, EU members with nearly half of EU transport energy demand had made the EU renewable energy rules national law1.

The United States created a tax credit for clean hydrogen, known as 45V, in 20227. A law of July 2025 limits it to projects that start construction before the end of 20278.

In 2026 governments acted against fertilizer shortages. Russia and Egypt restricted exports. Türkiye, the United States and the EU lifted tariffs or import limits. India and Benin set price controls or subsidies1.

Sources

  1. 1

    International Energy Agency, 2026. Global Hydrogen Review 2026 , Executive summary pp. 9-14; Middle East effects p. 21; Box 1.1 p. 20; targets p. 31; geological hydrogen pp. 36-42; demand pp. 44-57; transport p. 62; production pp. 83-85, 106; costs pp. 110-116; RED transposition p. 133; trade p. 143; policy p. 194; definitions pp. 257-258.

    Hydrogen demand, production routes, costs, emissions, trade and natural hydrogen for 2025.

    • with almost 30% of global demand, followed by North America (16%) and the Middle East (15%)
    • China 30% … Middle East 14% North America 16% … India 10%
    • hydrogen is mainly produced and consumed on-site
    • almost 65% of hydrogen produced globally was produced from natural gas, and 21% of this came from the Middle East … accounting for an additional 6% of global hydrogen production from natural gas … Overall, 27% of hydrogen made worldwide from natural gas relies on supplies from the Middle East
    • with China behind nearly three-quarters of new installations
    • the majority of the ammonia was used to produce fertilisers
    • Morocco, which meets all its demand for ammonia with imports, 40% of which come from the Middle East, or Brazil, Australia, South Africa and Thailand, which meet all their demand for urea with imports (40-85% from the Middle East)
    • relies on gas imports from the Middle East for 34% of its hydrogen production from natural gas
    • one-quarter of ammonia production in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan uses natural gas imported from the region
    • Hydrogen demand reached 3.1 Mt in 2024, equal to around 3% of global demand and concentrated in a handful of countries, led by Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria
    • 66 countries … have adopted hydrogen strategies
    • Only China and the Netherlands are on track to meet their announced targets for production of low-emissions hydrogen by 2030
    • By early June 2026, member states representing nearly half of the transport energy demand in the European Union had transposed the directive
    • export restrictions (for instance in Russia and Egypt), lifting of tariffs or import restrictions (e.g. in Türkiye, United States, European Union) … price controls or subsidies for fertilisers (e.g. India, Benin)
  2. 2

    European Commission, 2026. Critical raw materials .

    The 2023 list of 34 critical raw materials. The strategic raw materials are a subset of this list (copper and nickel are added to it as strategic), so a material absent from it is on neither list.

    • in 2023, a fifth list of 34 CRMs was published in the Annex II of the regulation proposal
    • a fifth list of 34 CRMs was published
  3. 3

    European Court of Auditors, 2026. Special report 04/2026: Critical raw materials for the energy transition , Paragraphs 07 and 26, Figure 2; Annex II.

    The 17 EU strategic raw materials shown as a subset of the 34 critical raw materials.

    • a list of 17 strategic raw materials. These are a subset of critical raw materials
  4. 4

    U.S. Geological Survey, 2025. About the 2025 List of Critical Minerals .

    The 60 minerals on the 2025 US list.

    • Fifty of the 60 minerals on the 2025 List of Critical Minerals were also on the 2022 list
    • Fifty of the 60 minerals on the 2025 List of Critical Minerals
  5. 5

    U.S. Department of Energy, 2023. Notice of Final Determination on 2023 DOE Critical Materials List (preprint) , p. 2.

    The critical materials for energy.

    • The final 2023 DOE Critical Materials List includes certain critical materials for energy and critical minerals as listed below
    • The final 2023 DOE Critical Materials List includes certain critical materials for energy
  6. 6

    UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre, British Geological Survey, 2024. UK 2024 Criticality Assessment , Table 1 p. 9; scope p. 11; Hydrogen (natural) rows pp. 125, 152.

    The 34 UK critical minerals; natural hydrogen assessed as a candidate.

    • gases except natural hydrogen (H) and helium (He), which are included
    • the updated 2024 UK list (Table 1) comprises 34 critical minerals
    • from 26 in 2021 to 82 in 2024
  7. 7

    Congressional Research Service, 2024. Hydrogen Production: Overview and Issues for Congress (R48196) , Summary; pp. 2-4 and Figure 1; pp. 14-18.

    World production estimates and route shares from US DOE; the 45V tax credit, the hydrogen hubs and the debate in Congress.

    • P.L. 117-169, commonly known as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
  8. 8

    International Energy Agency, 2025. Global Hydrogen Review 2025 , pp. 42, 80, 112, 218.

    Production in 2024, refining uses and the US 45V deadline.

    • the 45V tax credits, which were finally approved in July 2025
    • eligibility is now limited to projects that begin construction before the end of 2027