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Hydrogen: social and political problems

What problems does it cause between people, and who carries them?

Through hydrogen, food prices depend on gas supply, so wars that cut gas and fertilizer trade hurt farmers in importing countries. Hydrogen fires and explosions injure workers. New export projects, targets and subsidies cause public disputes.

Last updated 3 October 2026.

Conflict and disputes

The war in the Middle East began on 28 February 2026 and closed the Strait of Hormuz1. Several refineries and petrochemical plants in the region stopped work. In some cases, military attacks damaged hydrogen production units1.

In March 2026, QAFCO in Qatar paused urea production at Mesaieed, the largest urea complex in the world. This followed drone strikes on the liquefied natural gas plants of QatarEnergy1. Iran has 9 million tonnes a year of urea capacity, and its exports stopped1.

An earlier war had a similar effect. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 raised the price of natural gas steeply1. Hydrogen made from gas in Europe then cost more than USD 9 per kilogram as a yearly average1.

Workers and communities

Fire is the main danger in the accident records. The French accident database ARIA holds 372 events with hydrogen. In 73% of them, hydrogen caught fire or exploded. Of these fires and explosions, 15% killed at least one person and 43% injured people2.

In 2019 three accidents happened in a few weeks. In Gangwon province, South Korea, a storage tank exploded and killed two people2. In Santa Clara, California, an explosion shut 9 of the 11 hydrogen stations in the area2. At Kjørbo, Norway, an explosion at a fuelling station injured three people slightly2.

New export projects change towns. The company Hyphen plans a hydrogen and ammonia complex near Lüderitz, Namibia. In 2023 Climate Home News reported that Hyphen expected to bring in 15,000 workers3. In September 2026 Hyphen said that it aims for a final investment decision on the first phase by the end of 20274.

We found no report of forced labor or child labor in hydrogen production in the sources we read. We searched the IEA, IRENA and CRS reports and news reports on export projects.

Who gains and who loses

Countries with cheap gas gain from trade in hydrogen products. The Middle East supplies more than a quarter of world ammonia trade and almost 40% of urea trade1. Importers lose when that supply stops. Urea prices doubled between January and April 20261. The IEA states that even small cuts in fertilizer use can reduce crop yields1.

Kenya is an example of the effect on farmers. In 2022 fertilizer costs in Kenya rose 70%. Experts cited by IRENA estimated a 12% drop in maize yields5. About 3 million more Kenyans then faced acute food insecurity5.

US subsidies also affect who gains. The United States offers a tax credit for clean hydrogen, created in 20226. It chose seven regional hydrogen hubs for an initial USD 7 billion. The law required at least two hubs in regions with natural gas, and three of the seven plan to use gas6. The IEA counted four hubs with gas projects in 20257. In October 2025 the Department of Energy ended 321 awards. They included the awards to two of the seven hubs, in California and the Pacific Northwest8. These two hubs planned to make hydrogen only with renewable electricity8. The department said that the projects it ended were not economically viable9.

Public debate

In the US Congress, the debate is about hydrogen from natural gas with carbon capture. The Congressional Research Service describes two sides. Some members see it as a workable way to make low-emission hydrogen. Other members oppose support for it, because producing natural gas releases emissions that carbon capture does not stop6.

In the EU, the debate is about targets. In 2024 the European Court of Auditors found the targets overly ambitious and said the Commission had not analyzed them well enough10. The Commission replied that it based the targets on the potential to replace fossil hydrogen and on industry readiness11.

In Namibia, the debate is about the Hyphen tender. A policy researcher at IPPR said the project is mired in secrecy. The government said the tender was done with the utmost transparency and fairness. Hyphen said that it would be irresponsible to publish commercially sensitive agreements3.

Sources

  1. 1

    International Energy Agency, 2026. Global Hydrogen Review 2026 , Executive summary pp. 9-14; Middle East effects p. 21; Box 1.1 p. 20; targets p. 31; geological hydrogen pp. 36-42; demand pp. 44-57; transport p. 62; production pp. 83-85, 106; costs pp. 110-116; RED transposition p. 133; trade p. 143; policy p. 194; definitions pp. 257-258.

    Hydrogen demand, production routes, costs, emissions, trade and natural hydrogen for 2025.

    • the conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026
    • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted the supply of all these products
    • several refineries and petrochemical plants have halted operations due to supply disruptions and the impossibility of exporting their products or to military attacks, which in some cases have damaged hydrogen production units
    • QAFCO paused urea production at its Mesaieed site (the largest urea production complex in the world … in March, after drone strikes on QatarEnergy’s LNG facilities
    • in Iran, which has a total capacity of 9 Mtpa of urea, exports have ceased
    • in 2022, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine steeply increased the prices of fossil fuels, particularly natural gas
    • in Europe, where LCOH reached above USD 9/kg H2 as an annual average
    • the Middle East accounts for more than one-quarter of international ammonia trade (of 16 Mt) and almost 40% of global trade in urea (of 54 Mt)
    • urea prices, for example, doubled between January and April 2026
    • even modest reductions in fertiliser use can lead to declines in crop yields
  2. 2

    BARPI, French Ministry for the Ecological Transition (ARIA accident database), 2020. Hydrogen and transport: the risks should not be underestimated (Flash ARIA) .

    Three hydrogen accidents in 2019 and an analysis of 372 hydrogen events.

    • An analysis of 372 events involving hydrogen … 73% of hydrogen incidents involved fires and/or explosions … 15% of fires and/or explosions involving hydrogen resulted in the death of at least one person and 43% resulted in injuries
    • A hydrogen storage tank at a new-energy research centre exploded … Two people died and six others were injured
    • the accident downed 9 out of the 11 hydrogen fuelling stations in the area
    • slightly injuring three people
  3. 3

    Climate Home News, 2023. Shades of green hydrogen: EU demand set to transform Namibia .

    The Hyphen export project at Lüderitz, Namibia, and the dispute over its tender. News source, used for events and attributed statements only.

    • Hyphen expects to bring in 15,000 workers
    • the fact that this project is mired in secrecy is raising red flags … The Namibian government said the tender was … conducted with the utmost transparency and fairness … it would be irresponsible
  4. 4

    Hyphen Hydrogen Energy, 2026. Hyphen Selected for $5.93 Million Funding Support from the African Development Bank to Advance Namibia's Flagship Green Hydrogen Project .

    Company press release of 22 September 2026. Used only for the company's own project timetable.

    • FID for the first phase of one million tonnes per annum targeted by the end of 2027
  5. 5

    International Renewable Energy Agency, 2024. Green hydrogen strategy: A guide to design , Kenya case (fertiliser prices and maize).

    Effect of fertilizer price rises on maize and food security in Kenya, 2020-2022.

    • leading to a 70% increase in 2022. Experts estimated that this fertiliser price hike could cause a 12% drop in maize yields in 2022
    • around 3 million additional Kenyans … now face acute food insecurity
  6. 6

    Congressional Research Service, 2024. Hydrogen Production: Overview and Issues for Congress (R48196) , Summary; pp. 2-4 and Figure 1; pp. 14-18.

    World production estimates and route shares from US DOE; the 45V tax credit, the hydrogen hubs and the debate in Congress.

    • The tax credit was established by P.L. 117-169
    • The statute required that at least two hubs be located in regions with natural gas resources … The seven finalists for the initial $7 billion … three finalists plan to incorporate natural gas
    • Some Members see SMR plus CCS as a viable option to produce low-emission hydrogen, while other Members oppose measures that support hydrogen production pathways that use natural gas due to emissions associated with natural gas production, which CCS does not mitigate
  7. 7

    International Energy Agency, 2025. Global Hydrogen Review 2025 , pp. 42, 80, 112, 218.

    Production in 2024, refining uses and the US 45V deadline.

    • the future of the four hubs that include projects using natural gas with CCUS under the USD 7 billion Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs program remains unclear
  8. 8

    Alexander C. Kaufman, Canary Media, 2025. Trump's cuts to billion-dollar hydrogen hubs rattle industry .

    News report of 10 October 2025 on the end of DOE awards to two hydrogen hubs. Used for the event only.

    • as part of a list of 321 grants revoked … the Department of Energy rescinded … in awards to two of the seven regional hydrogen hubs
    • the terminated projects, in California and the Pacific Northwest, to focus exclusively on hydrogen made with renewable electricity
  9. 9

    U.S. Department of Energy, 2025. Energy Department Announces Termination of 223 Projects, Saving Over $7.5 Billion .

    Press release of 1 October 2025 with the department's stated reason for ending 321 awards.

    • DOE determined that these projects did not adequately advance the nation’s energy needs, were not economically viable
  10. 10

    European Court of Auditors, 2024. Special report 11/2024: The EU's industrial policy on renewable hydrogen , Executive summary, paragraphs IV-V.

    Audit of the EU renewable hydrogen targets.

    • the EU targets turned out to be overly ambitious … the Commission did not undertake robust analyses before setting the EU’s renewable hydrogen production and import targets
  11. 11

    European Commission, 2024. Replies of the European Commission to the European Court of Auditors special report on the EU's industrial policy on renewable hydrogen , Section II.1, EU production and import targets.

    The Commission's reasons for its 2030 hydrogen targets.

    • objectives were based on the decarbonisation potential to replace fossil-based hydrogen consumption, and the industry’s readiness to develop an industrial supply chain to deploy electrolysers